By P. Arestis, G. Zezza
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Extra resources for Advances in Monetary Policy and Macroeconomics
Eichenbaum, M. G. ), Monetary Policy. Chicago: Chicago University Press. , M. Flabbi and F. Giavazzi (1999) ‘The Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Europe: Evidence From Bank’s Balance Sheets’. CEPR Discussion Papers, no. 2303. Fiorentini, R. and R. Tamborini (2000) ‘The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Italy: The Credit Channel and a Missing Ring’, Giornale degli Economisti, 61, 1–42. Fiorentini, R. and R. Tamborini (2002) ‘Monetary Policy, Credit and Aggregate Supply’, Economic Notes, 31, 1–48.
4 Identifying the long-run structure Having determined the dimension of the cointegration space, we have proceeded to the analysis of the identification of the cointegrating vectors. This step ( Johansen, 1995) is performed by defining the restriction matrices that the estimated cointegration vectors βˆ should satisfy, in order to have unique cointegrating relations, interpretable as long-run structural relations among the observed variables. To this effect, we have exploited the time structure imposed by the theoretical model, namely that the contemporaneous t variables determine the forward t + 12 variables, but not the other way round (except for anticipated inflation).
Assumptions in favour of a simpler behaviour of agents are better accepted. With the pricing structure of Taylor, both the naïve expectations hypothesis and the ‘near-rational’ hypothesis of Ball are supported. 2 Robustness analysis In order to assess the robustness of those results we use alternative specifications structural curves and competing econometric methods. We also investigate the time-stability of our previous results in order to confirm their ‘structural’ nature. Then we display some graphs to appreciate the goodnessof-fit of the Phillips Curve with respect to the nature of inflation expectations.